GDP Outlook: A report by CRISIL


GDP: Demonetisation pain, GST anxiety to the fore (A report by CRISIL Ltd)

The Central Statistical Office (CSO) released quarterly estimates of GDP for first quarter of current fiscal. Crucially, the government has also revised down gross value added (GVA) growth for the fourth quarter of last fiscal by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.6%, suggesting that the impact of demonetisation on the economy was more than earlier estimated. In the first quarter, real GDP growth slid to 5.7% from 7.9% in the same quarter last fiscal. The slowdown corroborates with corporate results for the first quarter, which had shown net profits declining for chunk of listed firms. The computation of GDP relies heavily on corporate data from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs database. The slowdown reflects sharp deceleration in exports of goods, and some moderation in consumption growth.

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